Clear Mechanism for Election Dispute Resolution
Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, outlined specific rules to handle bets on the 2024 US Presidential Election if the results are disputed. The market focuses on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the presidency. Decisions depend on three major news organizations: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
If these organizations do not agree on a winner by January 20, 2025, Polymarket will resolve the market based on who officially becomes President. This approach ensures clarity when election results face delays or disputes, allowing traders to hold their positions until officials confirm the outcome.
Concerns About Market Manipulation
Despite these clear rules, some worry about potential market manipulation on Polymarket. A few accounts have placed large bets favoring Donald Trump, raising questions about their impact on the market’s integrity. Newsweek noted that these substantial wagers could affect public perception during a disputed election.
However, Jim Bianco pointed out that recent days have also seen large bets favoring Kamala Harris, briefly shifting market odds by up to 4%. CryptoSlate reported persistent betting in favor of Trump from several large investors, known as whales. Due to low order book liquidity, analysts estimate that it would take less than $6 million to cause significant market changes.
Polymarket’s decentralized nature and the lack of exploited rules indicate that these patterns result from regular trading behavior rather than manipulation. Since traders do not exploit technical mechanisms, market odds solely reflect participants’ trading activity.
Market Resolution Amid Election Disputes
Role of Media in Resolving Election Markets
As the election approaches, Polymarket’s reliance on media outlets raises questions about objectivity and potential biases. In close elections, media organizations might give conflicting results, creating uncertainty for traders. The New York Times noted that this situation could delay Polymarket’s ability to resolve markets quickly.
Polymarket’s final resolution depends on who takes office as President. If the listed news outlets do not agree by January 20, the winning outcome will follow the official inauguration.
Legal Implications of a Delayed Inauguration
Legal disputes could delay the inauguration past January 20, complicating Polymarket’s resolution. The 20th Amendment outlines what happens if there is no president-elect by that date. In this case, the vice president-elect temporarily assumes presidential duties. If neither candidate qualifies, Congress decides the next steps, with the Speaker of the House next in line for succession.
If this hypothetical scenario results in Speaker of the House Mike Johnson becoming President, Polymarket traders may feel dissatisfied. Although the chances of this situation are slim, the 2020 election history has increased concerns about a contested 2024 result. Since August, the market’s odds of election certification on January 6 have dropped from 94% to 84%.
Conclusion
Polymarket’s clear approach and reliance on official inauguration aim to maintain fairness amid the uncertainties of a contested election. However, ongoing concerns about market manipulation and media biases continue to spark discussions, reflecting the complexities of decentralized prediction platforms in politically sensitive events.
The post What happens to Polymarket bets if result of US Election is contested? appeared first on CryptoSlate.
