Impact on Crypto Investors
Crypto investors closely monitor the U.S. presidential election, especially following Joe Biden’s sudden withdrawal from the race. This move has sparked intense speculation about his replacement as the Democratic nominee.
Pro-Bitcoin Stance in 2024 Race
The 2024 election is noteworthy as candidates have seriously addressed digital assets for the first time. Donald Trump and his vice-presidential pick, JD Vance, have taken a pro-Bitcoin stance, garnering significant donations.
Kamala Harris Gaining Ground
Kamala Harris, Biden’s current vice president, is emerging as a frontrunner against Trump, backed by many senior party officials. However, there are calls for a more open contest within the party.
Betting Markets as Indicators
Betting markets provide insights into the evolving political landscape, with real-time odds changes reflecting the latest developments. Notably, activity surged after Trump survived an assassination attempt and Biden announced his exit via social media.
Polymarket’s Popularity
The crypto-focused platform Polymarket has become a favored spot for betting on political outcomes, sports, and pop culture. The cost of a bet here depends on current odds, and shares can be traded until the event concludes.
Massive Betting on U.S. Election
So far, hundreds of millions of dollars have been wagered on the U.S. election, with $321 million bet on the presidential outcome. Currently, Donald Trump is seen to have a 65% chance of re-election, up from 41% in January despite legal challenges.
Shifting Odds for Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris has seen a significant rise in her odds, especially after Biden’s poor debate performance. Her chances have increased from 5% to 28%, indicating growing support.
Other Democratic Contenders
Michelle Obama has a 4% chance, while another Democrat stands at 3%. Figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Hillary Clinton, and Gavin Newsom have less than a 1% chance of winning.
Implications for Biden Supporters
Those who bet on Biden face substantial losses, with $43.6 million worth of bets now valueless after his exit. His odds were 45% just two months ago.
Democratic Nominee for Vice President
There’s no clear consensus on the Democratic vice-presidential nominee. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper leads slightly at 29%, followed by Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro at 24%.
Trump’s Popular Vote Prospects
While Polymarket users are confident in Trump’s re-election, there is less certainty about him winning the popular vote. In 2016, Trump won the presidency without a majority of the popular vote, and currently, 48% believe he will win the popular vote in 2024, compared to 43% for Harris.
Prediction Market Accuracy
Polymarket claims that prediction markets are generally more accurate than polls and pundits. However, the current political climate poses a unique challenge to this theory.
Conclusion
The 2024 election is poised to impact the crypto world significantly and beyond, with far-reaching consequences regardless of the outcome.
