PlanB, the creator of the renowned Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has reiterated his ambitious forecast for Bitcoin, projecting an average price of $500,000 in 2025. Known for his data-driven predictions, he noted that his estimate has remained consistent since 2022 when Bitcoin was trading at $20,000.
With the 2024 halving event complete, PlanB considers this year a critical period for the S2F model to showcase its full potential.
Validating the S2F Model
PlanB highlighted Bitcoin’s surge to $108,000 in late 2024 as evidence of the S2F model’s reliability. Based on his calculations, Bitcoin could average $500,000 in 2025, with a trading range projected between $250,000 and $1 million.
This forecast aligns with increasing institutional adoption and macroeconomic trends, further solidifying Bitcoin’s position as a premier store of value.
PlanB’s key points include:
- Bitcoin’s rise leading to the April 2024 halving.
- A rally aligned with the S2F value.
- The potential for Bitcoin to hit $100,000 in 2024 and average $500,000 in 2025.
Factors Fueling Bitcoin’s Price Growth
Impact of the Halving Event
The Bitcoin halving event in April 2024 reduced the supply of newly minted coins, creating scarcity and driving demand. Historically, halving events have been pivotal in triggering significant price increases. PlanB asserts that Bitcoin’s ability to reach $108,000 in 2024 underscores the halving’s role in its valuation.
Institutional Adoption
Large-scale adoption by institutions continues to strengthen Bitcoin’s position. MicroStrategy recently acquired 2,138 BTC, raising its holdings to an impressive 446,400 BTC. These institutional investments validate Bitcoin’s role as a financial asset and exert upward pressure on its price.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserves
Speculation about the U.S. potentially establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve could further amplify demand. If this occurs, it would signify Bitcoin’s acceptance as a critical financial asset, possibly propelling its price into PlanB’s forecasted range.
Bitcoin’s Current Technical Outlook
Bitcoin is trading at $96,568, marking a 3.16% gain in the past 24 hours. Its market capitalization stands at $1.91 trillion, with a trading volume of $33.9 billion, reflecting robust investor interest.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance: $98,322, $100,262, $102,183
- Support: $95,484, $93,818, $92,103
A triple-bottom pattern at $92,103 has reinforced Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. The 50-day EMA at $95,484 supports the upward trajectory, while an RSI of 60 indicates strong buying interest without signaling overbought conditions.
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