Russian experts predict that altseason may return this year, fueled by new momentum in the altcoin market. However, they caution that the market will not mirror previous altseasons.
VG GROUP Managing Partner Vagiz Nurullov noted that summer is typically “not the most active and successful period for trading, particularly in cryptocurrencies,” as reported by RBC, Russia’s news outlet.
Altseason to Begin in November?
Nurullov pointed out that cryptocurrencies face challenges such as “limited liquidity compared to global stock markets” and heightened volatility. With summer now over, he suggested that the market may be entering a more dynamic phase.
“We are entering a more active market stage,” Nurullov stated. “There’s an increase in open interest, and traders are engaging in more transactions, driven by a growing appetite for risk.”
While September is traditionally a slow month for crypto, RBC highlighted that the overall cryptocurrency market value has been rising since early autumn. As of this month, the market has grown by 7%, despite fluctuations in Bitcoin (BTC) prices.
Russian analysts stressed the importance of Bitcoin stabilizing above $65,200 to confirm a shift from downward trends to an upward trajectory.
Nurullov mentioned that while open interest has increased, it is still not very strong, as the market is gradually awakening. He added that several positive factors are now working in favor of the market, including FTX investor repayments, potential Fed interest rate cuts, the upcoming U.S. elections, and crypto market seasonality.
Global Factors Impacting Altseason
Oleg Kalmanovich, an analyst at Neomarkets, agreed with Nurullov, noting that the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cuts are a key factor. He explained that such cuts typically trigger growth in risky assets like cryptocurrencies. According to Kalmanovich, large investors are starting to lose interest in low-yield dollar deposits, and this capital may soon flow into altcoins.
Kalmanovich also highlighted the upcoming U.S. labor market data release on October 4 as a crucial event. Additionally, the U.S. presidential election on November 5 could create further opportunities for crypto growth, as the banking sector typically boosts liquidity ahead of such events.
Experts Urge Caution on Altcoin Growth
Despite the positive outlook, experts warned that any upcoming altseason would differ from those of the past. Nurullov explained that traders now face a much larger array of crypto projects to choose from, compared to earlier altseasons.
The first wave of growth is expected by early November, with a potential second wave emerging by March, depending on the outcome of the U.S. elections.
Kalmanovich identified altcoins like NEAR, XRP, and Polkadot as assets with room for growth. These tokens have lagged behind since the beginning of the year and may benefit from lower interest rates in Western economies.
Analysts believe this altseason could be the most significant since 2017, with some forecasting the largest altcoin bull run in years.
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