Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, has experienced a significant increase in website traffic. It now surpasses prominent DeFi platforms such as Uniswap, dYdX, Compound, and GMX.
Trump vs. Harris Betting Frenzy
The primary driver of this surge is the intense interest in betting on the US presidential election, particularly the potential face-off between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Polymarket’s Growth Metrics
Recent data indicates that Polymarket’s daily average visits have reached an impressive 296,515. Users spend an average of 6 minutes and 46 seconds per visit on the platform. In comparison, Uniswap, the closest competitor in terms of traffic, records 134,309 daily average visits, with users spending 5 minutes and 21 seconds per visit. The second and third largest DeFi platforms recorded even fewer visits, with only GMX surpassing 10,000.
Betting Volume Surge
According to Dune Analytics, Polymarket’s cumulative bet volume soared to $1.03 billion in July, up from $672.94 million in June. This marks a substantial increase compared to July 2023, when the cumulative bet volume was $283.16 million.
Impact of High-Profile Events
The rise in bets is linked to high-profile news events, such as Harris’s anticipated Democratic nomination and an assassination attempt on Trump, the leading Republican contender, earlier this month.
Trump vs. Harris Betting Frenzy
Polymarket users are captivated by the possibility of a Trump-Harris showdown. In the week following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic race, Harris’ odds of winning the Democratic nomination more than doubled, increasing from 18% to 44%.
Election Odds and Trends
Trump remains the favored candidate among large-scale bettors, with a 53% chance of winning the election. However, his odds fell from 59% after his appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ).
Market Analysis
Polymarket’s interactive map and trending market analysis reveal a dynamic and heavily contested election season. Republicans are currently favored to control the presidency and the Senate, while Democrats are expected to retain control of the House. Key battleground states show mixed support, with Republicans leading in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, while Democrats hold Michigan.
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