Bitcoin recently reached a new all-time high of $99.6k, but on-chain data, particularly from CryptoQuant, suggests the cryptocurrency still has significant potential for further gains. Despite a minor price correction to $91k, key valuation indicators show that Bitcoin has not yet reached overbought levels, signaling that the current bull market could continue.
Bitcoin’s Price Target: $146k
CryptoQuant’s analysis reveals that Bitcoin’s realized price valuation—calculated as the average purchase price of all circulating Bitcoin—sets a potential price ceiling at $146k. Historically, market peaks have often occurred around this price range, as evidenced by the April-May 2021 and January 2021 peaks. With Bitcoin trading below this level, analysts are optimistic that the market remains in bullish territory.
Bitcoin Holders: New Investors and Market Conditions
One crucial indicator supporting the bullish outlook is the distribution of Bitcoin holdings. Currently, new Bitcoin holders control just over 50% of the total invested value, which is lower compared to previous market cycles. In 2017 and 2021, new investors controlled over 90% and 80% of Bitcoin, respectively, at the market peaks. Typically, a high percentage of new retail investors purchasing at inflated prices signals overbought conditions. However, retail investor activity in the current market is relatively subdued. Since October, retail investors have reduced their holdings by 41,000 Bitcoin.
Whales Are Accumulating Bitcoin
In contrast, large investors, known as “whales,” have been increasing their Bitcoin holdings. Over the past period, whales have added 130,000 Bitcoin to their portfolios. This accumulation by institutional and long-term investors is a bullish signal, indicating strong confidence in Bitcoin’s future price potential. The lack of retail frenzy, which typically marks the end of a bull market, suggests that Bitcoin’s current rally could still have plenty of room to grow.
Macro Trends and Bitcoin’s Future Outlook
CryptoQuant analysts also note that Bitcoin’s price trajectory aligns with broader macroeconomic trends that are favorable for digital assets. Increasing institutional adoption, the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and a supportive regulatory environment in the U.S. are all factors that could continue to propel Bitcoin’s price growth.
With Bitcoin holding strong in its bull cycle and the realized price valuation pointing to a target of $146k, analysts believe the cryptocurrency could soon surpass the $100k milestone. For now, on-chain data supports the view that Bitcoin’s rally is far from over
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