Data from Polymarket reveals a notable disparity in the order book for the 2024 US Election, particularly in markets predicting a Donald Trump victory. The current market depth, reflecting the total amount of asks and bids, stands at $33.5 million, with $32 million in sell orders and just $1.5 million in buy orders.
Trump Market Sell-Side Dominance
The sell-side of the Trump market is dominated by high-priced orders. Of the $32 million in sell orders, $28 million is priced above $0.99, leaving only $4 million at or below this threshold. This heavy concentration of high-priced sell orders highlights the substantial sell-side pressure typical in timed prediction markets like this one.
Similarly, the market for Kamala Harris shows a comparable trend. The total asks above the current price for Harris amount to $17 million, with $13 million priced above $0.99. This leaves a similar sell-side structure as Trump’s market.
Lack of Market Depth at Current Prices
One surprising revelation is the minimal market depth near the current trading prices. Only $2.5 million is visible in the Trump market between the price range of $0.01 and $0.62, where the current price stands at $0.60. In comparison, the Harris market, priced at 39%, has $3.5 million in orders within the same price range.
Potential Market Movements and Liquidity Impact
With relatively low ask values below $0.62 for both Trump and Harris, the liquidity needed to significantly shift the market is approximately $4 million. This represents just over 1.4% of the reported open interest for the Trump market, which Dune Analytics reports as $276 million.
However, despite the large open interest, actual trading activity represents only a small fraction of these positions. Discrepancies between reported open interest and actual betting volumes have raised concerns. For instance, Trump bets exceed Polymarket’s total reported open interest of $239 million, creating confusion among traders.
Top Traders’ Influence on Market Depth
Four major traders have played a significant role in shaping the Trump market. Collectively, these top traders have contributed $121 million in trading volume since September, buying up large portions of the order book.
| Trader | Positions Value ($) | Profit/Loss ($) | Volume Traded ($) | Markets Traded | Joined |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michie | 3,980,981.12 | 341,179.18 | 8,450,962.77 | 0 | Oct 2024 |
| PrincessCaro | 6,978,910.68 | 813,711.08 | 23,473,481.78 | 14 | Sep 2024 |
| Theo4 | 7,280,451.39 | 137,384.50 | 15,206,599.73 | 8 | Oct 2024 |
| Fredi9999 | 16,723,955.99 | 1,556,542.18 | 74,097,607.44 | 45 | Jun 2024 |
| Total | 34,964,299.18 | 2,848,816.94 | 121,228,651.72 | 67 |
These traders have consistently placed daily buy orders for Trump since the end of September, sometimes within minutes of each other.
Potential Price Movement Scenarios
A hypothetical $4 million buy order in the Trump market could exhaust the liquidity between the current price of $0.60 and $0.99, potentially pushing Trump’s price up to nearly $0.99. This would represent a 65% increase in his odds. A similar buy order in the Harris market would likely have a comparable effect, given the similar structure of the sell orders.
Though this $4 million represents only 1.4% of the total open interest, its potential impact on market price could be significant due to the shallow order book. However, large orders often attract new liquidity and prompt reactions from other market participants, potentially tempering the actual market movement.
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