The crypto community is closely monitoring how the upcoming U.S. presidential election could shape the future of the industry.
While former President Donald Trump has positioned himself as the “crypto president,” advocating for the sector, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has maintained a more cautious stance throughout her campaign.
Both Candidates Could Influence Bitcoin Positively
Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, and Nathan Frankovitz, a digital asset investment analyst, have weighed in on the possible outcomes. They suggest that while both Harris and Trump could be bullish for Bitcoin, the overall digital asset market may experience different trajectories depending on their policies.
Harris Administration: Regulatory Challenges but Potential Bitcoin Boost
VanEck outlined that under a Harris presidency, the crypto industry could see a continuation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s strict regulatory stance. Harris may align herself with more regulatory-focused Democrats like Senator Elizabeth Warren, creating a difficult environment for institutional crypto adoption.
This increased regulatory scrutiny could hamper innovation and the broader growth of digital assets. However, VanEck noted that this challenging climate might actually benefit Bitcoin, as investors could turn to it as a hedge against fiscal policies that increase economic uncertainty and inflation.
In this scenario, Bitcoin could outshine other digital assets due to its appeal as a store of value.
Trump Presidency: Favorable for the Broader Crypto Market
Conversely, VanEck suggested that a second Trump term would likely bring deregulation and business-friendly policies. Such an administration could foster a more favorable environment for the entire crypto market, offering less regulatory pressure and greater opportunity for growth and innovation.
Potential Bitcoin Surge Under Trump, According to Bernstein
Not all analysts agree on how the election will affect Bitcoin prices. Bernstein, for instance, predicts that if Trump wins, Bitcoin’s value could surge to between $80,000 and $90,000. However, if Harris secures the presidency, Bitcoin might drop to the $30,000 to $40,000 range.
Macro Trends Favor Bitcoin Regardless of Election Outcome
Despite varying opinions on the impact of either candidate, broader economic trends appear to favor Bitcoin. VanEck expects the U.S. to continue facing rising fiscal deficits and growing national debt, which could weaken the dollar. Historically, such conditions have boosted Bitcoin’s status as a hedge against economic instability.
Bitcoin Could Reach New All-Time Highs Regardless of the Election
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick also expects Bitcoin to end the year on a high note, regardless of the election result. He projects Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs by 2024, with estimates of $125,000 if Trump wins and $75,000 if Harris emerges victorious.
In conclusion, while the upcoming election may bring different regulatory approaches, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains strong due to its role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.
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