Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently suspended his campaign. This announcement caused confusion among Polymarket bettors. A significant wager had been placed on whether Kennedy would end his presidential run by Friday. The wager, attracting over $300,000, specified that the market would resolve positively if Kennedy “officially announces his withdrawal” from the November election.
Kennedy’s Announcement Causes Market Shifts
Polymarket traders initially believed there was a 90% chance Kennedy would drop out by Friday. However, this expectation changed dramatically. After Kennedy’s speech in Arizona, the odds fell to just 6%. He clarified that he was suspending his campaign in key battleground states like Arizona, but not completely abandoning it.
Kennedy explained, “I’m not terminating my campaign, I’m simply suspending it.” He added, “Our polling showed that staying on the ballot in battleground states might hand the election to the Democrats, with whom I disagree on critical issues.”
Confusion grew due to conflicting news reports. Fox News stated that Kennedy had “dropped his White House bid,” while Reuters reported he had “abandoned his campaign on Friday.”
Historical Controversies and Polymarket’s Challenges
This is not Polymarket’s first controversy. Earlier, the platform dealt with a disputed $680,000 market related to LayerZero’s airdrop. That dispute was settled by UMA, a DeFi protocol using a “decentralized truth machine.”
Following Kennedy’s announcement, betting odds shifted in favor of former President Donald Trump.
Calls for Regulatory Action Intensify
As Polymarket’s trading volume soared, reaching a record $1 billion monthly, regulatory scrutiny increased. Five U.S. Senators and three House representatives have called for a ban on betting linked to the 2024 presidential election. The bipartisan group includes Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes.
In a letter to Rostin Behnam, Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the lawmakers warned about the influence of large wagers on election outcomes. They expressed concern that billionaires could sway results and erode public trust. They stated, “Political bets change motivations behind votes, replacing convictions with financial calculations.”
Launched in 2020, Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform. It uses cryptocurrencies to bet on real-world events. The platform, using USDC stablecoin, recently saw unprecedented trading volumes, reflecting rising interest in the U.S. election.
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